whoever could maintain a blockade of the others ports probably.
if I were running one of the breakaway nations, I would try to form a coalition with another one over mutual disdain for texas. decapitate it's leadership, demobilize it's law enforcement, and create a colony on it with displaced people from other areas. heavily arm them and direct them to land / resource / infrastructure grab everything.
with any luck, everybody will be so focused on that shit show, they won't notice that I have used all the gold to build a giant Colossus of myself that shoots flames and lightning bolts.
checkmate.